[Analysis of long-term prognosis and risk factors in patients with dilated cardiomyopathy].

Objective: To investigate the risk factors and long-term prognosis of major adverse cardiovascular events(MACEs) in patients with dilated cardiomyopathy (DCM). Methods: This study was a single-center retrospective cohort study. Clinical information from 300 patients with DCM hospitalized in Peking Union Medical College Hospital from April 2013 to April 2023 was collected. Based on echocardiography results, the patients were divided into two groups: isolated DCM and DCM with left ventricular non-compaction cardiomyopathy (LVNC). The MACEs, including major heart failure events, severe ventricular arrhythmias, and cardiovascular death, were recorded by outpatient or telephone follow-up. Univariate and multivariate Cox proportional hazard regression models were used to analyze the risk factors affecting the prognosis of patients with DCM. Kaplan-Meier curve and log-rank were used for survival analysis to compare the difference in the incidence of cardiovascular events between the two groups. Results: The included 300 DCM patients were (47.8±16.8) years old, with 197 males (65.7%), of which 237 (79.0%) were isolated DCM and 63 (21.0%) were DCM with LVNC. The follow-up time was 4.0 (1.9, 6.2) years. A total of 142 (47.3%) MACEs occurred, including 117 (39.0%) major heart failure events, 20 (6.7%) severe ventricular arrhythmia events, and 53 (17.7%) cardiovascular death events. Multivariate Cox proportional hazard regression analysis showed that increased left ventricular end-diastolic diameter (HR=1.21, 95%CI: 1.01-1.44, P=0.042), moderate or severe mitral regurgitation (HR=1.71, 95%CI: 1.19-2.47, P=0.004), increased ln (N-terminal pro-B-type natriuretic peptide) (HR=1.30, 95%CI: 1.10-1.54, P=0.002) were independent risk factors for dverse cardiovascular events in DCM patients, and angiotensin-converting enzyme inhibitor (ACEI)/angiotensin receptor blocker (ARB)/angiotensin receptor neprilysin inhibitor (ARNI) treatment (HR=0.45, 95%CI: 0.26-0.78, P=0.004) was independent protective factor. Kaplan-Meier survival analysis found no significant difference in the risk of MACEs between isolated DCM and DCM with LVNC (P=0.22). Similarly, there were no significant differences in the incidence of major heart failure, severe ventricular arrhythmia, and cardiovascular death between the two groups (all P>0.05). Conclusion: An increase in left ventricular end-diastolic diameter, moderate or severe mitral regurgitation, elevated N-terminal pro-B-type natriuretic peptide, and non use of ACEI/ARB/ARNI are independent predictors of cardiovascular events in DCM patients. There was no significant risk of MACEs in patients with isolated DCM and DCM with LVNC, and suggested that LVNC may be a unique phenotype and should be accurately managed in combination with genetic background.

[Analysis of factors influencing the efficacy and prognosis of surgical treatment for primary malignant pelvic bone tumors].

Objective: To analyze the prognostic factors and the influence of surgical margin to prognosis. Methods: A retrospective analysis was performed for 208 pelvic tumors who received surgical treatment from January 2000 to December 2017 in our instituition. Survival analysis was performed using the Kaplan-Meier method and Log rank test, and impact factor analysis was performed using Cox regression models. Results: There were 183 initial patients and 25 recurrent cases. According to Enneking staging, 110 cases were stage ⅠB and 98 cases were stage ⅡB. 19 lesions were in zone Ⅰ, 1 in zone Ⅱ, 15 in zone Ⅲ, 29 in zone Ⅰ+Ⅱ, 71 in zone Ⅱ+Ⅲ, 29 in zone Ⅰ+Ⅳ, 35 in zone Ⅰ+Ⅱ+Ⅲ, 3 in zone Ⅰ+Ⅱ+Ⅳ, and 6 in zone Ⅰ+Ⅱ+Ⅲ+Ⅳ. Surgical margins including Intralesional excision in 7 cases, contaminated margin in 21 cases, marginal resection in 67 cases, and wide resection in 113 cases. Local recurrence occurred in 37 cases (17.8%), 25 cases were performed by reoperation and 12 cases received amputation finally. The 5-year recurrence rate of marginal resection was higher than wide resection (P＜0.05), and the recurrence-free survival rate of marginal resection was lower than wide resection (P＜0.05). There was significant differences in recurrence rate and recurrence-free survival rate between R0 and R1 resection (P＜0.05). 92 cases were not reconstructed and 116 cases were reconstructed after pelvic surgery. At the last follow-up, 63 patients (30.3%) died, and the 5-year, 10-year and 15-year survival rates were 70.4%, 66.8% and 61.3%, respectively. The 5-year survival rate of stage ⅠB and ⅡB tumor was 90.4% and 46.8%, respectively. There were 29 cases had postoperative wound complications (13.8%), 1 case with pelvic organ injury. The final function was evaluated in 132 patients, with an average MSTS score of 25.1±3.6. Cox multivariate analysis showed that surgical staging, R0/R1 margin and metastasis were independent prognostic factors for pelvic tumors. Conclusions: The safe surgical margin is the key factor for recurrence-free of pelvic tumor. The survival rate of stage ⅡB pelvic tumors was significantly lower than that of stage ⅠB tumors. Wound infection is the main postoperative complication. Surgical staging, R0/R1 margin and metastasis were independent prognostic factors of pelvic tumors.

[Establishment of a prognostic nomogram and discussion on optimal treatment for cervical adenocarcinoma:a retrospective study based on SEER database and Chinese single-center data].

Objective: To establish and validate a predicting nomogram for cervical adenocarcinoma based on surveillance, epidemiology and end results (SEER) database and Chinese single-center data, and to explore the optimal treatment for cervical adenocarcinoma. Methods: This study selected 2 478 cervical adenocarcinoma patients from the SEER database as the training cohort, and 195 cervical adenocarcinoma patients from Cancer Hospital of Dalian University of Technology, Liaouing Cancer Hospital and Institute as an external validation cohort. Clinicopathological information and follow-up data of the two cohorts were collected. The radiotherapy group was defined as receiving comprehensive treatment based on concurrent chemoradiotherapy after initial diagnosis, while the surgery group was defined as receiving comprehensive treatment based on radical surgery. Log-rank test and cox regression were used to evaluate factors affecting the prognosis of cervical adenocarcinoma patients. A nomogram was drawn to predict the 3-year and 5-year overall survival rates of cervical adenocarcinoma patients, and then internal validation of the training cohort from SEER database and external validation of the hospital cohort were conducted. Results: (1) In the SEER database training cohort, there were 385 patients (15.54%, 385/2 478) in the radiotherapy group and 2 093 patients (84.46%, 2 093/2 478) in the surgery group. Overall survival time of the radiotherapy group was (55.8±51.3) months, while that of the surgery roup was (94.4±61.7) months, the difference between the two groups was statistically significant (χ2=256.44, P<0.001). Log-rank test showed that age, marital status, maximum of tumor diameters, pathological grade, International Federation of Gynecology and Obstetrics (FIGO) stage, and treatments were all significant factors affecting the overall survival time of cervical adenocarcinoma patients (all P<0.001). Multivariate Cox regression analysis showed that elder (>50 years old), single status, huge tumors (>4 cm), high pathological grades (G2, G3), and advanced FIGO stages (≥Ⅱa2 stage) were independent risk factors for the overall survival time of cervical adenocarcinoma patients (all P<0.05); compared with radiotherapy, surgery was a protective factor for the prognosis of cervical adenocarcinoma patients (HR=0.619, 95%CI: 0.494-0.777; P<0.001). Further analysis of locally advanced stage and Ⅲc stage of patients showed that surgery was a protective factor for the prognosis of cervical adenocarcinoma patients with a maximum tumor diameter >4 to <6 cm (HR=0.414, 95%CI: 0.182-0.942; P=0.036) in locally advanced stage and Ⅲc T1 to T2 stage (HR=0.473, 95%CI: 0.307-0.728; P=0.001). (2) The external validation cohort consisted of 39 patients (20.00%, 39/195) in the radiotherapy group and 156 patients (80.00%, 156/195) in the surgery group. The overall survival time of patients in the radiotherapy group was (51.7±34.3) months, while that of the surgery group was (63.1±26.6) months (χ2=28.41, P<0.001). Further analysis was conducted on locally advanced stage and Ⅲc stage patients, and multivariate Cox regression analysis was performed after propensity score matching, which showed that surgery was a protective factor for the prognosis of cervical adenocarcinoma patients with a maximum tumor diameter >4 to <6 cm in locally advanced stage (HR=0.141, 95%CI: 0.023-0.843; P=0.032) and Ⅲc T1 to T2 stage (HR=0.184, 95%CI: 0.036-0.947; P=0.043). (3) Establishment and internal and external validation of nomogram: based on the six factors screened out by the multivariate Cox regression model, the nomogram was developed to predict the prognosis of cervical adenocarcinoma patients. The consistency index of the internal and external validation were 0.801 and 0.766, respectively, and the calibration curves matched well with the ideal fitting line. Conclusions: The key to the treatment of cervical adenocarcinoma is to prioritize radical surgery for patients with conditions for radical tumor resection. Compared with concurrent chemoradiotherapy, patients with locally advanced stages (Ⅰb3, Ⅱa2), and Ⅲc (T1, T2) stages cervical adenocarcinoma could benefit from comprehensive treatment based on radical surgery. The nomogram of this study has been validated internally and externally, and show good survival prediction efficacy for cervical adenocarcinoma patients.

Association of food insecurity with overall and disease-specific mortality among cancer survivors in the US.

PURPOSE: To investigate the association of food insecurity with overall and disease-specific mortality among US cancer survivors. METHODS: Data from the National Health and Nutrition Examination Survey (NHANES 1999-2018) were used to examine the impact of food insecurity on mortality risks among cancer survivors in the US. Study participants aged ≥ 20 years who had a history of cancer and completed the Adult Food Security Survey Module were included. Mortality data [all-cause, cancer, and cardiovascular (CVD) specific] through December 31, 2019 were obtained through linkage to the National Death Index. Using multivariable Cox proportional hazard regression, hazard ratios of mortality based on food security status were estimated. RESULTS: Among 5032 cancer survivors (mean age 62.5 years; 58.0% women; 86.2% non-Hispanic White), 596 (8.8%) reported food insecurity. Overall, 1913 deaths occurred (609 cancer deaths and 420 CVD deaths) during the median follow-up of 6.8 years. After adjusting for age, food insecurity was associated with a higher risk of overall (HR = 1.93; 95% CI = 1.56-2.39), CVD-specific (HR = 1.95; 95% CI = 1.24-3.05), and cancer-specific (HR = 1.70; 95% CI = 1.20-2.42) mortality (P < 0.001). However, after adjusting for socioeconomic characteristics and health-related factors (physical activity, diet quality measured by healthy eating index), the association between food insecurity and overall mortality was no longer statistically significant. CONCLUSIONS: Food insecurity was associated with a greater risk of overall mortality among cancer survivors. Further studies are needed to confirm these findings and evaluate whether the observed association represents a causal phenomenon and, if so, whether the effect is modifiable with food assistance programs.

Cardiovascular mortality risk in patients with ovarian cancer: a population-based study.

OBJECTIVES: Ovarian cancer (OC) can occur at different ages and is affected by a variety of factors. In order to evaluate the risk of cardiovascular mortality in patients with ovarian cancer, we included influencing factors including age, histological type, surgical method, chemotherapy, whether distant metastasis, race and developed a nomogram to evaluate the ability to predict occurrence. At present, we have not found any correlation studies on cardiovascular death events in patients with ovarian cancer. This study was designed to provide targeted measures for effective prevention of cardiovascular death in patients with ovarian cancer. METHODS: Kaplan-Meier analysis and multivariable Cox proportional model were performed to evaluate the effectiveness of cardiovascular diseases on overall survival (OS) and ovarian cancer-specific survival (OCSS). We compared multiple groups including clinical, demographic, therapeutic characteristics and histological types. Cox risk regression analysis, Kaplan-Meier survival curves, and propensity score matching were employed for analyzing the data. RESULTS: A total of 88,653 ovarian cancer patients were collected, of which 2,282 (2.57%) patients died due to cardiovascular-related diseases. Age, chemotherapy and whether satisfactory cytoreduction surgery is still the most important factors affecting the prognosis of ovarian cancer patients, while different histological types, diagnosis time, and race also have a certain impact on the prognosis. The newly developed nomogram model showed excellent predictive performance, with a C-index of 0.759 (95%CI: 0.757-0.761) for the group. Elderly patients with ovarian cancer are still a high-risk group for cardiovascular death [HR: 21.07 (95%CI: 5.21-85.30), p < 0.001]. The calibration curve showed good agreement from predicted survival probabilities to actual observations. CONCLUSION: This study found that age, histology, surgery, race, chemotherapy, and tumor metastasis are independent prognostic factors for cardiovascular death in patients with ovarian cancer. The nomogram-based model can accurately predict the OS of ovarian cancer patients. It is expected to inform clinical decision-making and help develop targeted treatment strategies for this population.

Predictive value of the systemic immune-inflammation index on one-year mortality in geriatric hip fractures.

BACKGROUND: Geriatric hip fractures are associated with a high incidence of mortality. This study examines the predictive value of the systemic immune-inflammation index (SII) on one-year mortality in elderly hip fracture patients. METHODS: A single-center retrospective study was conducted between February 2017 and October 2020. Three hundred and eleven surgically treated consecutive hip fracture patients were included in the study. Admission, postoperative first day, and postoperative fifth-day SII values were calculated. The receiver operating characteristic (ROC) curve was used to calculate the cut-off values, and patients were divided into high and low groups according to these cut-off values. After univariate Cox regression analysis, significant factors were included in the multivariate Cox proportional hazards model to adjust the effect of covariates and explore independent predictive factors associated with mortality. Further subgroup analysis was performed to evaluate the accuracy of the results for different clinical and biological characteristics. RESULTS: The mean age was 80.7 ± 8.0 years, and women made up the majority (67.8%) of the patients. The one-year mortality rate was 28.0%. After univariate and multivariate analyses, high postoperative fifth-day SII remained an independent predictor of one-year mortality (adjusted HR 2.16, 95% CI 1.38-3.38, p = 0.001). Older age, male gender, Charlson comorbidity index (CCI) ≥ 2, and hypoalbuminemia were found to be other independent predictors. The optimal cut-off value of the postoperative fifth-day SII was calculated at 1751.9 units (p < 0.001). CONCLUSION: The postoperative fifth-day SII is a simple and useful inflammatory biomarker for predicting one-year mortality in patients with hip fracture.

Pediatric traumatic brain injury and early age multiple sclerosis in Finland: A nationwide register-based cohort study.

OBJECTIVE: Examine the link between pediatric traumatic brain injury (pTBI) and early-onset multiple sclerosis in Finland. METHODS: Conducted nationwide register study (1998-2018) with 28,750 pTBI patients (< 18) and 38,399 pediatric references with extremity fractures. Multiple sclerosis diagnoses from Finnish Social Insurance Institution. Employed Kaplan-Meier and multivariable Cox regression for probability assessment, results presented with 95% CI. RESULTS: Of 66 post-traumatic multiple sclerosis cases, 30 (0.10%) had pTBI, and 36 (0.09%) were in the reference group. Cumulative incidence rates (CIR) in the first 10 years were 46.5 per 100,000 (pTBI) and 33.1 per 100,000 (reference). Hazard ratio (HR) for pTBI was 1.10 (95% CI: 0.56-1.48).Stratified by gender, women's CIR was 197.9 per 100,000 (pTBI) and 167.0 per 100,000 (reference) after 15 years. For men, CIR was 44.6 per 100,000 (pTBI) and 34.7 per 100,000 (reference). In the initial 3 years, HR for female pTBI was 1.75 (95% CI: 0.05-6.32), and between years 3 and 20, it was 1.08 (95% CI: 0.51-1.67). For male patients, HR was 1.74 (95% CI: 0.69-4.39). SIGNIFICANCE: We did not find evidence of an association between pTBI and early-onset multiple sclerosis 20 years post-initial trauma.

Risk factors of reattempt among suicide attempters in South Korea: A nationwide retrospective cohort study.

This study aimed to identify underlying demographic and clinical characteristics among individuals who had previously attempted suicide, utilizing the comprehensive Health Insurance Review and Assessment Service (HIRA) database. Data of patients aged 18 and above who had attempted suicide between January 1 and December 31, 2014, recorded in HIRA, were extracted. The index date was identified when a suicide attempt was made within the year 2014. The medical history of the three years before the index date and seven years of follow-up data after the index date were analyzed. Kaplan-Meier estimate was used to infer reattempt of the suicide attempters, and Cox-proportional hazard analysis was used to investigate risk factors associated with suicide reattempts. A total of 17,026 suicide attempters were identified, of which 1,853 (10.9%) reattempted suicide; 4,925 (28.9%) patients had been diagnosed with depressive disorder. Of the reattempters, 391 (21.1%) demonstrated a history of suicide attempts in the three years before the index date, and the mean number of prior attempts was higher compared to that of the non-reattempters (1.7 vs.1.3, p-value < 0.01). Prior psychiatric medication, polypharmacy, and an increase in the number of psychotropics were associated with suicide reattempt in overall suicide attempters. (Hazard ratio (HR) = 3.20, 95% confidence interval [CI] = 2.56-4.00; HR = 2.42, 95% CI = 1.87-3.14; HR = 19.66, 95% CI = 15.22-25.39 respectively). The risk of reattempt decreased in individuals receiving antidepressant prescriptions compared to those unmedicated, showing a reduction of 78% when prescribed by non-psychiatrists and 89% when prescribed by psychiatrists. Similar risk factors for suicide reattempts were observed in the depressive disorder subgroup, but the median time to reattempt was shorter (556.5 days) for this group compared to that for the overall attempters (578 days). Various risk factors including demographics, clinical characteristics, and medications should be considered to prevent suicide reattempts among suicide attempters, and patients with depressive disorder should be monitored more closely.

The quasi-xgamma frailty model with survival analysis under heterogeneity problem, validation testing, and risk analysis for emergency care data.

Frailty models are important for survival data because they allow for the possibility of unobserved heterogeneity problem. The problem of heterogeneity can be existed due to a variety of factors, such as genetic predisposition, environmental factors, or lifestyle choices. Frailty models can help to identify these factors and to better understand their impact on survival. In this study, we suggest a novel quasi xgamma frailty (QXg-F) model for the survival analysis. In this work, the test of Rao-Robson and Nikulin is employed to test the validity and suitability of the probabilistic model, we examine the distribution's properties and evaluate its performance in comparison with many relevant cox-frailty models. To show how well the QXg-F model captures heterogeneity and enhances model fit, we use simulation studies and real data applications, including a fresh dataset gathered from an emergency hospital in Algeria. According to our research, the QXg-F model is a viable replacement for the current frailty modeling distributions and has the potential to improve the precision of survival analyses in a number of different sectors, including emergency care. Moreover, testing the ability and the importance of the new QXg-F model in insurance is investigated using simulations via different methods and application to insurance data.

Association between onychomycosis and ulcerative complications in patients with diabetes: a longitudinal cohort study in Dutch general practice.

INTRODUCTION: Diabetic foot ulcers are feared complications of diabetes mellitus (DM), requiring extensive treatment and hospital admissions, ultimately leading to amputation and increased mortality. Different factors contribute to the development of foot ulcers and related complications. Onychomycosis, being more prevalent in patients with diabetes, could be an important risk factor for developing ulcers and related infections. However, the association between onychomycosis and diabetic complications has not been well studied in primary care. RESEARCH DESIGN AND METHODS: To determine the impact of onychomycosis on ulcer development and related complications in patients with diabetes in primary care, a longitudinal cohort study was carried out using routine care data from the Extramural Leiden University Medical Center Academic Network. Survival analyses were performed through Cox proportional hazards models with time-dependent covariates. RESULTS: Data from 48 212 patients with a mean age of 58 at diagnosis of DM, predominantly type 2 (87.8%), were analysed over a median follow-up of 10.3 years. 5.7% of patients developed an ulcer. Onychomycosis significantly increased the risk of ulcer development (HR 1.37, 95% CI 1.13 to 1.66), not affected by antimycotic treatment, nor after adjusting for confounders (HR 1.23, 95% CI 1.01 to 1.49). The same was found for surgical interventions (HR 1.54, 95% CI 1.35 to 1.75) and skin infections (HR 1.48, CI 95% 1.28 to 1.72), again not affected by treatment and significant after adjusting for confounders (HR 1.32, 95% CI 1.16 to 1.51 and HR 1.27, 95% CI 1.10 to 1.48, respectively). CONCLUSIONS: Onychomycosis significantly increased the risk of ulcer development in patients with DM in primary care, independently of other risk factors. In addition, onychomycosis increased the risk of surgeries and infectious complications. These results underscore the importance of giving sufficient attention to onychomycosis in primary care and corresponding guidelines. Early identification of onychomycosis during screening and routine care provides a good opportunity for timely recognition of increased ulcer risk.

Waistline to thigh circumference ratio as a predictor of MAFLD: a health care worker study with 2-year follow-up.

BACKGROUND: This study aimed to determine whether the waist-to-thigh ratio (WTTR) is associated with the incidence of metabolic-associated fatty liver disease (MAFLD) in health care workers. METHODS: There were 4517 health care workers with baseline data and results from 2 follow-up examinations. We divided the subjects into 3 groups according to baseline WTTR and used the Cox hazard regression model to estimate MAFLD risk. RESULTS: The WTTRs were categorized by tertiles at baseline using the values 1.58 and 1.66. Patients with higher WTTR tended to have significantly greater values for the following factors, body mass index (BMI), fasting blood glucose (FPG), systolic blood pressure, diastolic blood pressure, total cholesterol (TC), triglycerides (TG), low-density lipoprotein-cholesterol (LDL-C) and neck circumference. The incidence of MAFLD significantly increased with increasing WTTR tertiles (5.74%, 12.75% and 22.25% for the first, second and third tertiles, respectively, P < 0.05 for trend). Kaplan-Meier(K-M) survival analysis revealed a significant tendency towards increased MAFLD risk with increasing WTTR tertile. In the fully adjusted model, the hazard ratios (95% CIs) for MAFLD in the second, third WTTR tertiles compared with the first quartile were 2.17(1.58,2.98), 3.63(2.70,4.89), respectively, third neck circumference tertiles compared with the first quartile were 2.84(1.89,4.25), 8.95(6.00,13.35), respectively. Compared with those of individuals with a BMI > 23 kg/m2, the associations between WTTR and MAFLD incidence were more pronounced in subjects with a BMI < 23 kg/m2. Similarly, the difference in neck circumference was more pronounced in these patients with a BMI < 23 kg/m2. CONCLUSIONS: Our results revealed that the WTTR is an independent risk factor for MAFLD, and there was a dose‒response relationship between the WTTR and MAFLD risk. The neck circumference was significantly different in subjects with a BMI < 23 kg/m2. This approach provides a new way to predict the incidence rate of MAFLD.

Remnant cholesterol is an effective biomarker for predicting survival in patients with breast cancer.

BACKGROUND: Breast cancer is the most common malignancy in women worldwide. The relationship between remnant cholesterol (RC) and the prognosis of patients with breast cancer has not been clearly reported. This study investigated the prognostic value of RC in predicting mortality in patients with breast cancer. METHODS: This study prospectively analysed 709 women patients with breast cancer from the Investigation on Nutrition Status and Clinical Outcome of Common Cancers (INSCOC) project. Restricted cubic splines were used to analyse the dose-response relationship between RC and breast cancer mortality. The Kaplan-Meier method was used to evaluate the overall survival of patients with breast cancer. A Cox regression analyses was performed to assess the independent association between RC and breast cancer mortality. Inverse probability of treatment weighting (IPTW) using the propensity score was used to reduce confounding. Sensitivity analysis was performed after excluding patients with underlying diseases and survival times shorter than one year. RESULTS: A linear dose-response relationship was identified between RC and the risk of all-cause mortality in patients with breast cancer (p = 0.036). Kaplan-Meier survival analysis and log-rank test showed that patients with high RC levels had poorer survival than those with low RC levels (p = 0.007). Univariate and multivariate Cox regression analyses showed that RC was an independent risk factor for mortality in women patients with breast cancer. IPTW-adjusted analyses and sensitivity analyses showed that CR remained a prognostic factor. CONCLUSIONS: RC is an independent risk factor for the prognosis of patients with breast cancer, and patients with higher RC levels have poorer survival.

[Prognosis Analysis of Additional Surgical Treatment for High-Risk T1 Colorectal Cancer Patients After Endoscopic Resection]. / è¿½åŠ å¤–ç§‘æ‰‹æœ¯æ²»ç–—å¯¹é«˜é£Žé™©T1æœŸç»“ç›´è‚ ç™Œå† é•œåˆ‡é™¤æ‚£è€ çš„é¢„åŽå½±å“.

Objective: To analyze the effect of additional surgery on the survival and prognosis of high-risk T1 colorectal cancer patients who have undergone endoscopic resection. Methods: The clinical data of patients with high-risk T1 colorectal cancer were retrospectively collected. The patients were divided into the endoscopic resection (ER) plus additional surgical resection (SR) group, or the ER+SR group, and the ER group according to whether additional SR were performed after ER. Baseline data of the patients and information on the location, size, and postoperative pathology of the lesions were collected. Patient survival-related information was obtained through the medical record system and patient follow-up. The primary outcome indicators were the overall survival and the colorectal cancer-specific survival. Univariate Cox regression analysis was used to screen survival-related risk factors and hazard ratio (HR) was calculated. Multivariate Cox regression analysis was used to analyze the independent influencing factors. Results: The data of 109 patients with T1 high-risk colorectal cancer were collected, with 52 patients in the ER group and 57 patients in the ER+SR group. The mean age of patients in the ER group was higher than that in the ER+SR group (65.21 years old vs. 60.54 years old, P=0.035), and the median endoscopic measurement of the size of lesions in the ER group was slightly lower than that in the ER+SR group (2.00 cm vs. 2.50 cm, P=0.026). The median follow-up time was 30.00 months, with the maximum follow-up time being 119 months, in the ER+SR group and there were 4 patients deaths, including one colorectal cancer-related death. Whereas the median follow-up time in the ER group was 28.50 months, with the maximum follow-up time being 78.00 months, and there were 4 patient deaths, including one caused by colorectal cancer. The overall 5-year cumulative survival rates in the ER+SR group and the ER group were 94.44% and 81.65%, respectively, and the cancer-specific 5-year cumulative survival rates in the ER+SR group and the ER group were 97.18% and 98.06%, respectively. The Kaplan-Meier analysis showed no significant difference in the overall cumulative survival or cancer-specific cumulative survival between the ER+SR and the ER groups. Univariate Cox regression analysis showed that age and the number of reviews were the risk factors of overall survival (HR=1.16 and HR=0.27, respectively), with age identified as an independent risk factor of overall survival in the multivariate Cox regression analysis (HR=1.10, P=0.045). Conclusion: For T1 colorectal cancer patients with high risk factors after ER, factors such as patient age and their personal treatment decisions should not be overlooked. In clinical practice, additional caution should be exercised in decision-making concerning additional surgery.

Changes in Sleep Patterns, Genetic Susceptibility, and Incident Cardiovascular Disease in China.

Importance: The associations of changes in sleep patterns with incident cardiovascular disease (CVD) are not fully elucidated, and whether these associations are modified by genetic susceptibility remains unknown. Objectives: To investigate the associations of 5-year changes in sleep patterns with incident CVD and whether genetic susceptibility modifies these associations. Design, Setting, and Participants: This prospective cohort study of the Dongfeng-Tongji cohort was conducted from 2008 to 2018 in China. Eligible participants included those with complete sleep information at baseline survey (2008-2010) and the first follow-up survey (2013); participants who had no CVD or cancer in 2013 were prospectively assessed until 2018. Statistical analysis was performed in November 2023. Exposures: Five-year changes in sleep patterns (determined by bedtime, sleep duration, sleep quality, and midday napping) between 2008 and 2013, and polygenic risk scores (PRS) for coronary heart disease (CHD) and stroke. Main Outcomes and Measures: Incident CVD, CHD, and stroke were identified from 2013 to 2018. Cox proportional hazards regression models were applied to estimate hazard ratios (HRs) and 95% CIs. Results: Among 15 306 individuals (mean [SD] age, 65.8 [7.4] years; 8858 [57.9%] female and 6448 male [42.1%]), 5474 (35.78%) had persistent unfavorable sleep patterns and 3946 (25.8%) had persistent favorable sleep patterns. A total of 3669 incident CVD cases were documented, including 2986 CHD cases and 683 stroke cases, over a mean (SD) follow-up of 4.9 (1.5) years. Compared with those with persistent unfavorable sleep patterns, individuals with persistent favorable sleep patterns over 5 years had lower risks of incident CVD (HR, 0.80; 95% CI, 0.73-0.87), CHD (HR, 0.84; 95% CI, 0.76-0.92), and stroke (HR, 0.66; 95% CI, 0.54-0.82) in the subsequent 5-year period. No significant effect modification by PRS was observed for sleep pattern change and CHD or stroke risk. However, sleep pattern changes and PRS were jointly associated with the CHD and stroke risk in a dose-dependent manner, with the lowest risk being among those with persistent favorable sleep patterns combined with low PRS (HR for CHD, 0.65; 95% CI, 0.52-0.82 and HR for stroke, 0.48; 95% CI, 0.29-0.79). Conclusions and Relevance: In this cohort study of middle-aged and older Chinese adults, individuals with persistent favorable sleep patterns had a lower CVD risk, even among those with higher genetic risk. These findings highlight the importance of maintaining favorable sleep patterns for CVD prevention.

Augmenting external control arms using Bayesian borrowing: a case study in first-line non-small cell lung cancer.

Aim: This study aimed to improve comparative effectiveness estimates and discuss challenges encountered through the application of Bayesian borrowing (BB) methods to augment an external control arm (ECA) constructed from real-world data (RWD) using historical clinical trial data in first-line non-small-cell lung cancer (NSCLC). Materials & methods: An ECA for a randomized controlled trial (RCT) in first-line NSCLC was constructed using ConcertAI Patient360™ to assess chemotherapy with or without cetuximab, in the bevacizumab-inappropriate subpopulation. Cardinality matching was used to match patient characteristics between the treatment arm (cetuximab + chemotherapy) and ECA. Overall survival (OS) was assessed as the primary outcome using Cox proportional hazards (PH). BB was conducted using a static power prior under a Weibull PH parameterization with borrowing weights from 0.0 to 1.0 and augmentation of the ECA from a historical control trial. Results: The constructed ECA yielded a higher overall survival (OS) hazard ratio (HR) (HR = 1.53; 95% CI: 1.21-1.93) than observed in the matched population of the RCT (HR = 0.91; 95% CI: 0.73-1.13). The OS HR decreased through the incorporation of BB (HR = 1.30; 95% CI: 1.08-1.54, borrowing weight = 1.0). BB was applied to augment the RCT control arm via a historical control which improved the precision of the observed HR estimate (1.03; 95% CI: 0.86-1.22, borrowing weight = 1.0), in comparison to the matched population of the RCT alone. Conclusion: In this study, the RWD ECA was unable to successfully replicate the OS estimates from the matched population of the selected RCT. The inability to replicate could be due to unmeasured confounding and variations in time-periods, follow-up and subsequent therapy. Despite these findings, we demonstrate how BB can improve precision of comparative effectiveness estimates, potentially aid as a bias assessment tool and mitigate challenges of traditional methods when appropriate external data sources are available.

Shape restricted additive hazards models: Monotone, unimodal, and U-shape hazard functions.

We consider estimation of the semiparametric additive hazards model with an unspecified baseline hazard function where the effect of a continuous covariate has a specific shape but otherwise unspecified. Such estimation is particularly useful for a unimodal hazard function, where the hazard is monotone increasing and monotone decreasing with an unknown mode. A popular approach of the proportional hazards model is limited in such setting due to the complicated structure of the partial likelihood. Our model defines a quadratic loss function, and its simple structure allows a global Hessian matrix that does not involve parameters. Thus, once the global Hessian matrix is computed, a standard quadratic programming method can be applicable by profiling all possible locations of the mode. However, the quadratic programming method may be inefficient to handle a large global Hessian matrix in the profiling algorithm due to a large dimensionality, where the dimension of the global Hessian matrix and number of hypothetical modes are the same order as the sample size. We propose the quadratic pool adjacent violators algorithm to reduce computational costs. The proposed algorithm is extended to the model with a time-dependent covariate with monotone or U-shape hazard function. In simulation studies, our proposed method improves computational speed compared to the quadratic programming method, with bias and mean square error reductions. We analyze data from a recent cardiovascular study.

Cardiogenic shock and chronic kidney disease: Dangerous liaisons.

BACKGROUND: Chronic kidney disease (CKD) is one of the leading causes of death worldwide, closely interrelated with cardiovascular diseases, ultimately leading to the failure of both organs - the so-called "cardiorenal syndrome". Despite this burden, data related to cardiogenic shock outcomes in CKD patients are scarce. METHODS: FRENSHOCK (NCT02703038) was a prospective registry involving 772 patients with cardiogenic shock from 49 centres. One-year outcomes (rehospitalization, death, heart transplantation, ventricular assist device) were analysed according to history of CKD at admission and were adjusted on independent predictive factors. RESULTS: CKD was present in 164 of 771 patients (21.3%) with cardiogenic shock; these patients were older (72.7 vs. 63.9years) and had more comorbidities than those without CKD. CKD was associated with a higher rate of all-cause mortality at 1month (36.6% vs. 23.2%; hazard ratio 1.39, 95% confidence interval 1.01-1.9; P=0.04) and 1year (62.8% vs. 40.5%, hazard ratio 1.39, 95% confidence interval 1.09-1.77; P<0.01). Patients with CKD were less likely to be treated with norepinephrine/epinephrine or undergo invasive ventilation or receive mechanical circulatory support, but were more likely to receive renal replacement therapy (RRT). RRT was associated with a higher risk of all-cause death at 1month and 1year regardless of baseline CKD status. CONCLUSIONS: Cardiogenic shock and CKD are frequent "cross-talking" conditions with limited therapeutic options, resulting in higher rates of death at 1month and 1year. RRT is a strong predictor of death, regardless of preexisting CKD. Multidisciplinary teams involving cardiac and kidney physicians are required to provide integrated care for patients with failure of both organs.

Effect of different treatment modalities on ovarian cancer patients with liver metastases: A retrospective cohort study based on SEER.

BACKGROUND: To examine the trends in morbidity and mortality among ovarian cancer patients with liver metastases, and investigate the impact of different treatments on both overall survival (OS) and cancer-specific survival (CSS). METHODS: 2,925 ovarian cancer patients with liver metastases from Surveillance, Epidemiology, and End Results 2010-2019 were included. The primary endpoint was considered as OS and CSS. We conducted trend analysis of the incidence, OS and CSS rates of liver metastases in ovarian cancer. Univariate and multivariate COX proportional risk models were used to investigate the association between different treatment methods and OS, and univariate and multivariate competing risk models were employed to evaluate the impact of treatment methods on CSS. RESULTS: At the end of follow-up, 689 patients remained alive. The OS and CSS rates were 76.44% and 72.99% for all patients, respectively. There was a significant decreasing trend in the incidence [average annual percent change (AAPC) = -2.3, 95% confidence interval (CI): -3.9, -0.7], all-cause mortality (AAPC = -12.8, 95% CI: -15.6, -9.9) and specific mortality (AAPC = -13.0, 95% CI: -16.1, -9.8) rate of liver metastases in ovarian cancer. After adjusting all confounding factor, only receiving surgery was associated with OS [hazard ratio (HR) = 0.39, 95%CI: 0.31-0.48]/CSS (HR = 0.37, 95%CI: 0.30-0.47). Chemotherapy was found to be protective factor for OS (HR = 0.33, 95%CI: 0.30-0.37)/CSS (HR = 0.44, 95%CI: 0.39-0.50) of ovarian cancer patients, while not receiving surgery remained a risk factor. Additionally, the result of subgroup analyses also showed that only receiving surgery and chemotherapy still were significant protective factor of OS and CSS for patients without other distant metastases, with distant metastases to the bone, lung, brain or other organs, with bone metastasis, and with lung metastasis. CONCLUSION: Our research has elucidated a downward trend in morbidity and mortality rates among patients with liver metastases originating from ovarian cancer. Only receiving surgery and chemotherapy as therapies methods confer survival benefits to patients.

Social isolation, regardless of living alone, is associated with mortality: the Otassha study.

Introduction: Social isolation has been recognized as a contributing factor to negative health outcomes. Although living alone is associated with health-related outcomes, existing findings are inconsistent. It is not the act of living alone that may predict poor health, but rather social isolation that can lead to increased mortality risk. This study investigated the combined associations of social isolation and living alone with mortality among community-dwelling older adults. Methods: We included older adults from Itabashi ward, Tokyo, who participated in comprehensive health checkups. Participants were categorized into four groups based on their social isolation status and living alone. The primary outcome was all-cause mortality, analyzed using Cox proportional hazards models. Results: Of the 1,106 participants (mean age 73, 42% male), 4.5% experienced both social isolation and living alone. This combination was associated with a worse prognosis regarding all-cause mortality (hazard ratio (HR): 2.08 [95% confidence interval (CI), 1.08-4. 00]). Those who were socially isolated but not living alone also showed a trend towards higher mortality risk (HR: 1.41 [95% CI, 0.90-2.20]). Contrastingly, those who were not socially isolated and lived alone did not show an increased mortality risk (HR: 0.81 [95% CI, 0.44-1.49]). Discussion and conclusion: Living alone is not inherently associated with a poor prognosis in older adults; however, social isolation was associated with a higher mortality risk. Healthcare providers should focus on enhancing social interactions and support for older adults because of their effects on health rather than solely addressing living arrangements to prevent adverse health events.

Deep partially linear cox model for current status data.

Deep learning has continuously attained huge success in diverse fields, while its application to survival data analysis remains limited and deserves further exploration. For the analysis of current status data, a deep partially linear Cox model is proposed to circumvent the curse of dimensionality. Modeling flexibility is attained by using deep neural networks (DNNs) to accommodate nonlinear covariate effects and monotone splines to approximate the baseline cumulative hazard function. We establish the convergence rate of the proposed maximum likelihood estimators. Moreover, we derive that the finite-dimensional estimator for treatment covariate effects is $\sqrt{n}$-consistent, asymptotically normal, and attains semiparametric efficiency. Finally, we demonstrate the performance of our procedures through extensive simulation studies and application to real-world data on news popularity.